October 29th, 1915

- Since the vote of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies on the 12th, Prime Minister René Viviani has been attempting to reconstruct his cabinet to shore up political support.  The tide has turned against Viviani, however, and many leading politicians refuse to join a government led by him.  Abandoning the attempt, he accepts the position of Vice-President of the Council of Ministers (analogous to a Deputy Prime Minister) in a new government led by Aristide Briand.  The minister of war, Alexandre Millerand, is also dismissed, replaced by General Joseph Gallieni, who had played an important part in the Entente victory at the Battle of the Marne.

- North of Kragujevać, the Austro-Hungarian VIII Corps makes little headway today against stiff Serbian resistance, the latter supported by artillery fire.  Seeing the inability of his western neighbour to make progress, General Lochow of the German III Corps believes that the two forces face extensive fixed fortifications, and orders his own corps to advance cautiously.  To the west, the advance of the Austro-Hungarian XIX Corps and the German XXII Reserve Corps is slowed primarily by poor weather, slowing in particular the movement of artillery.  The latter, after hard fighting yesterday, takes Gornji Milanovac today.  On the other side of Kragujevać, the German IV Reserve Corps successfully attacks across the Lepenica River, taking 750 Serbian prisoners.  Nevertheless, the corps is behind schedule - the attack had been originally scheduled for yesterday before swamped roads and high water had delayed the operation.  Also today, patrols from the German X Reserve Corps make contact with elements of the Bulgarian 1st Army, thus linking up the two fronts under Mackensen's overall direction.

The Serbian campaign, Oct. 29th, 1915.

- Though yesterday's attacks around Görz on the Isonzo River failed to achieve any major breakthrough, Cadorna orders further energetic attacks today.  After the exertions of the previous day, however, some of the Italian formations are simply incapable of similar assaults today - opposite Zagora, for instance, a counterattack by the Austro-Hungarian 1st Mountain Brigade throws back the Italian 3rd Division and takes two hundred prisoners, after which Italian activity in the sector noticeably declines.  Opposite Görz only 11th and 12th Divisions of VI Corps attack today, which allows the defenders to concentrate their artillery fire on a narrower length of the front.  Elements of the later again break into the Austro-Hungarian lines on the Podgora Heights, but in hand-to-hand combat lasting into the evening are unable to secure the position.

South of Görz, the Italian XIV Corps launches another effort to seize Mt. San Michele this morning.  Elements of 30th Division manage to fight their way to the northern summit, but a well-timed counterattack by 39th Honved Brigade drives them off the high ground.  To the south of Mt. San Michelle, 28th and 19th Divisions attempt to expand the ground seized yesterday; not only do they fail to do so, but after dark a counterattack by the Austro-Hungarian 17th Division regains the lost ground.

North of Tolmein, after a night of bitter fighting, Austro-Hungarian reserves retake the trenches lost yesterday on the inner wings of 3rd and 14th Mountain Brigades.  Further south, at noon the Italian VIII Corps attempts a crossing of the Isonzo River at Canale using boats and pontoons, but the engineers and their equipment make for obvious targets, and Austro-Hungarian artillery and machine-gun fire rapidly break up the attempt.

- In light of the presence of the German mission in Kabul, the government of British India informs the Emir of Afghanistan that they will increase their subsidy as a sign of their continued friendship and to dissuade any thoughts of siding with the Germans.  Emir Habibullah, however, continues to play the British and Germans off of each other, and decides to send no formal acknowledgement of the increased subsidy, lest the British conclude that his loyalty can be bought so cheaply.

October 12th, 1915

- After numerous delays, the next big push by the British 1st Army is scheduled to go in tomorrow afternoon, and this evening BEF commander Field Marshal Sir John French issues new objectives for 1st Army.  To this point, Haig's instructions have remained those issued on September 18th; namely, to reach the line of Haute Deule Canal, which south of Lille runs in a curve towards the front before angling to Douai to the southeast.  Now, however, French abandons the canal as the ultimate objective.  Instead, after the hoped-for success tomorrow in recapturing the Hohenzollern Redoubt and securing its northern flank, 1st Army will conduct subsidiary operations to secure ground from which another major offensive can be launched in the future.  This is a distinctive, and deliberate, reduction in the overall aim of the British offensive - though ground around the village of Loos has been gained, the broader aim of a breakthrough has not been achieved, and French is already looking towards preparations for the next major offensive.

- For several months, discontent with the French war effort has been percolating through political circles in Paris, and these concerns have been amplified in recent weeks with the failure of the autumn offensives in Artois and Champagne, coupled with the imminent entry of Bulgaria into the war.  Today Foreign Minister Théophile Delcassé, whose efforts to keep Bulgaria neutral have failed, resigns, which leads to a vote of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies regarding the government of Prime Minister René Viviani.  Though the government wins the vote 372 to 9, the large number of abstentions indicate that Viviani's grip on power is slipping.

- The postponed attack of the German XXII Reserve Corps and the Austro-Hungarian VIII Corps south of Belgrade goes in today, and the Germans, supported by a carefully planned and precise artillery bombardment, drive the Serbs back several kilometres and seize the Petlovo Hills.  The Austro-Hungarians, however, make significantly less progress, in part due to poor weather preventing support from monitors on the river.  Further east the advance of the German 11th Army continues: today 105th Division of IV Corps moves south of the Leštar Hills and 11th Bavarian Division reaches the outskirts of Požarevac.  On their left, the German X Reserve Corps seizes the Anatema Hills, which pushes the Serbs sufficiently behind the Danube River to allow the corps' heavy equipment to cross on pontoon bridges.  The most important development of the day, however, is beyond the control of the invading forces - the rain preventing river monitors from supporting the Austro-Hungarian attack is growing more intense.

- Today General Sarrail arrives at Salonika to take command of the Army of the Near East, where he receives instructions from the war minister to 'cover the lines of communication between Salonika and Serbia against the advance of Bulgarian forces.'  This means defending, first of all, the railway that connects Salonika and Skopje, running alongside the Vardar River.  Sarrail orders an infantry regiment and an artillery battalion to advance to the Strumica rail railway station a hundred kilometres north of Salonika and thirty kilometres into Serbian territory.  Here, the Bulgarian border is a dozen kilometres from the Salonika-Skopje railway (the village of Strumica itself is just inside Bulgaria), making a defence of the line here essential if the railway is to remain open to Entente forces.

August 13th, 1915

- President Poincaré, Premier Viviani, and Minister of War Millerand visit Joffre at the latter's headquarters, where they press Joffre to transfer four divisions to General Sarrail's new Army of the Near East.  The French commander-in-chief refuses, saying that nothing can be spared until the completion of the upcoming autumn offensive, and opposes making military decisions to please whom he refers to as 'a factious general.'

- In central Poland, while the German 9th Army crosses the Liwiec River, the units under Woyrsch's command is forced to launch a determined attack on the Russian positions to the east of Lukow, in order to dislodge the enemy and resume the advance.  Though the Russians are pushed back, they are able to retain cohesion and establish a new defensive position on the line Misie-Hadynow.  To the south, the Austro-Hungarian 4th Army finds itself now advancing almost due east as the Russian salient collapses, and like its German counterparts to the east finds itself being squeezed; today XIV Corps is pulled from the line.

- The German submarine UB14, patrolling the route between Alexandria and the Dardanelles, torpedoes the British transport Royal Edward, which sinks with the loss of nine hundred lives.

January 1st, 1915

- French President Poincarè, Prime Minister Viviani, and Minister of Justice Aristide Briand meet this morning for breakfast to discuss French strategic options for 1915.  Among the operations considered is the deployment of between four and five hundred thousand French soldiers to the Balkans, either to assist Serbia directly or more generally to threaten Austria-Hungary, via a landing either at Salonika in Greece or on the Adriatic coast.  Proposals for such an undertaking have come from such leading army officers as General Franchet d'Espèrey and General Joseph Gallieni, who view operations in the Balkans as a means to break the deadlock on the Western Front.

- Eight pre-dreadnoughts of the British Channel Fleet are at sea in the pre-dawn hours this morning, having departed Sheerness yesterday evening.  The eight are steaming in a straight line at moderate speed in the English Channel without a screen of destroyers.  Not surprisingly, just after 3am two torpedoes strikes the pre-dreadnought Formidable, last in line, and only 201 of the more than 800-man crew are rescued in the rough weather.  It is yet another example of the vulnerability of capital ships to submarine attack if the proper precautions are not taken.

The British pre-dreadnought Formidable, sunk on New Year's Day, 1915.

- Falkenhayn and Conrad meet this morning at the Prussian War Ministry in Berlin to discuss the overall strategic direction of the war.  Conrad argues that all offensive operations on the Western Front should be put on hold in order to concentrate on securing a decisive victory on the Eastern Front.  To this end, reinforcements drawn from the Western Front, in addition to the four and a half German reserve corps now being formed, should be sent to the East.  Falkenhayn rejects Conrad's suggestions out of hand; the German army, he asserts, is already outnumbered two to one in the West, and that when the new formations are ready for deployment in February, he will employ them on the Western Front.  In the face of this fundamental disagreement, the meeting degenerates into mutual recriminations.  Falkenhayn chastises the Austro-Hungarian 3rd Army for continuing to retreat, arguing it has to stop and observes dismissively 'there can't be that many Russians facing you.'  Conrad replies sharply that the German army began the war in the west with its own great retreat from the Marne.  Such an observation, while correct, is hardly calculated to improve Falkenhayn's disposition; he dismisses Conrad's observation with the comment that it was an error ordered by his predecessor.

The meeting breaks for lunch having accomplished nothing, and in the afternoon they are joined by Ludendorff, who had been summoned to Berlin.  While the latter supports the deployment of the new corps to the East, his proposal is to use them to undertake an offensive in East Prussia.  Both Falkenhayn and Conrad oppose the suggestion, the former not wanting the corps on the Eastern Front at all and the latter believing an operation in East Prussia is too distant to affect the situation in Galicia, which is Conrad's preoccupation.  By the end of the discussion, the most Falkenhayn is willing to concede is that a final decision on the deployment of the four and a half new corps does not need to be made for three weeks.  The only concrete decision of note to come from the meeting is an offer by Ludendorff to place three or four German divisions, drawn from 9th Army, at the disposal of Conrad.  Ludendorff believes that the failure of 9th Army in December to break through to Warsaw indicates that a decisive victory cannot be won here, and thus a portion of the German formations concentrated here can be better employed reinforcing the faltering Austro-Hungarians.  Conrad, not surprisingly, enthusiastically accepts.

The Eastern Front, January 1st, 1915.

September 1st, 1914

- After deliberations with his staff yesterday, Joffre issues General Instructions No. 4.  It orders 3rd, 4th, and 5th armies to continue their retreat, if necessary to the line of the Seine and Aube Rivers.  Once the threat to 5th Army of envelopment has passed, the French will go back on to the offensive.  Further reinforcements are to be drawn from Lorraine, while 6th Army was to cover Paris.  Though the Instructions do not specify a date on which the French are to go back on the attack, Joffre comments to the War Minister that he expects to resume the offensive by September 8th.

- Shortly after midnight, Lord Kitchener decides that given Sir John French's continued insistence on retreat, his only option is to visit French directly.  At 2am he walks into Grey's bedroom to inform him he is going to France, and thirty minutes later he leaves Charing Cross by a special train for Dover, where a fast cruiser carries him across the Channel.  By morning, Kitchener is in Paris, and has summoned French and his staff to the British Embassy, where Premier Viviani will also be present.  The BEF commander is instantly offended when Kitchener arrives - the latter has worn his blue undress Field Marshal uniform, which Sir John French takes as an attempt to pull rank.  The conversation among the group becomes increasingly heated, at which point Kitchener pulls French into a private room.  The specifics of their conversation are unknown, but Kitchener repeats the key point in a letter later today to the BEF commander, a copy of which is also sent to Prime Minister Asquith  - the BEF is 'now engaged in the fighting line, and will remain conforming to the movements of the French Army.'  Sir John French has been told as bluntly as possible that retreat out of the Entente line is not to occur, and thus the BEF is to remain in the battle.  The meeting, of course, does nothing to improve Sir John French's dispostion.

- Even as Kitchener is informing the BEF commander of his responsibilities, the 1st Cavalry Brigade and L Battery of the Royal Horse Artillery, covering the rear of the BEF, come under attack by the German 4th Cavalry Division, belonging to Kluck's 1st Army, at the village of Néry.  During the fighting all but one gun of L Battery are destroyed, and the crew of No. 6 are constantly under enemy fire.  Despite continued losses, the soldiers manning No. 6 gun maintain fire for two and a half hours, providing cover for 5th Dragoon Guards to strike the Germans in their flank, forcing the Germans to retire.  Three soldiers (one posthumously) who manned No. 6 gun are awarded the Victoria Cross, Britain's highest award for gallantry.  The action allows the BEF to once again escape destruction, enraging General Kluck.

Group photograph of L Battery of the Royal Horse Artillery, prior to embarkation for France.  Of the men pictured,
twenty-three were killed and thirty-one wounded at Néry today.

- The French 3rd and 4th Armies, together with Foch's army detachment, launches an attack today out of the Verdun fortified region against the German 5th Army, straddling the Meuse River.  Their objective is to turn from facing northeast to facing north, so to cover the right flank of Foch's army detachment as it comes into the line.  When the French attack is called off in the afternoon, Moltke believes the Germans have smashed a major counteroffensive, and the chimera of a Cannae appears once more to him.  He orders 3rd Army to move southeast across the Aisne River, followed by the left wing of 2nd Army.  His hope is to cut behind the French force attacking 5th Army, surrounding them and allowing for their destruction.

- As the French army retreats, the maintenance of morale is crucial.  Despite the exhausting marches, soldiers must continue to obey orders to avoid having the retreat turn into a rout.  To help ensure discipline is maintained, French officers are today given authorizations to conduct executions within 24 hours of those convicted of desertion - in a life and death struggle for the survival of France, providing the right 'incentives' to the army as a whole is more important than the fate of any individual soldier.

- On the Galician Front, STAVKA, Russian army headquarters, orders 3rd Army to adjust its advance to the northwest, to close the gap between it and 5th Army, and aid the latter.  General Brusilov's 8th Army, meanwhile, is to cover 3rd Army's southern flank and advance on Lemberg.

Meanwhile, the Austro-Hungarian 1st Army has advanced to the outskirts of Lublin to the north after its victory in the Battle of Kraśnik.  However, the Russian 4th Army opposite is being reinforced by the arrival of the Russian 9th Army, and the Austro-Hungarians are able to make no further progress.

The situation on the Galician front, Sept. 1st, 1914

August 26th, 1914

- In line with his General Instruction No. 2, Joffre establishes the new 6th Army, to be formed at Amiens and commanded by General Michel-Joseph Maunoury.  It will initially consist of VII Corps, drawn from Alsace, and two reserve divisions currently fighting in Lorraine.  As lead elements of these units detrain at Amiens, the Army of Lorraine, briefly established to cover the offensive into the Ardennes, and the Army of Alsace, are stood down, their remaining units assigned to neighbouring armies.

The situation on the Western Front, Aug. 26th, 1914

- Joffre travels to BEF headquarters today, summoning Generals Lanrezac and d'Amade to meet them as well.  Joffre needs the BEF to remain in the Entente line, retreating on level with 5th Army, but Joffre is hamstrung by the fact that he cannot give orders to Sir John French - indeed, as a Field Marshal the latter technically outranks the former.  Thus Joffre must try to use persuasion.

The meeting, however, is a complete disaster.  French begins by listing all of the ways in which the armies of France have let himself and the British down, ending with Lanrezac's retreat of 5th Army on the 23rd.  Lanrezac, for his part, has had enough of British equivocations, and contributes little beyond shrugs of contempt and icy stares; the commanders of the two adjacent armies refuse to directly speak to one another.  Joffre discovers that the British commander has not even read his General Instruction No. 2 yet - though his staff had received it, they had not yet translated it to him.  Joffre attempts to patiently outline his requirements of the BEF, but is unable to extract any promise from Sir John French.  The meeting breaks up without result.

- The gloom at BEF headquarters is matched by the events on the battlefield today.  Early this morning, elements of Haig's I Corps skirmishes with parts of the German 1st Army, both attempting to bed down in the same small French village.  The fighting breaks off quickly, but the normally cool Haig temporarily loses his nerve, informing Sir John French that I Corps is under major attack..  The news rattles BEF headquarters - French's chief of staff faints, and he himself orders I Corps to undertake a precipitate retreat.  Crucially, the direction of I Corps' retreat will cause it to be separated from II Corps by the Oise River.

More serious is the plight of II Corps to the left at Le Cateau.  Reconnaissance by the BEF's lone cavalry division under General Edmund Allenby discovers just after midnight that units of the German 1st Army are close enough to attack II Corps first thing in the morning.  When informed at 2am, General Smith-Dorrien consults his divisional commanders, who declare that their forces are too tired and disorganized to undertake a nighttime retreat.  Smith-Dorrien thus decides that II Corps will remain and fight the Germans until they can withdraw.

Opposite II Corps are two corps of the German 1st Army.  Two further German corps attempted to turn II Corps left flank, but were blocked by the actions of General d'Amade's forces and the redeployed French cavalry under General Sordet.  The battle thus consists largely of frontal German assaults on the British positions, coupled with heavy artillery fire.  Though the Germans suffer significant casualties, superior numbers and artillery take their toll - II Corps loses eight thousand men and thirty-eight guns.  However, from 5pm onwards II Corps is able to successfully disengage from the battle and resume the retreat.  The Battle of Le Cateau is a tactical German victory, but once again the British have managed to retire before being enveloped.  The Entente forces are being defeated and pushed back, but not destroyed.

The top part of the map gives the Battle of Le Cateau, Aug. 26th, 1914, and the bottom half gives the Battle of Guise
(also known as the Battle of St. Quentin), Aug. 29th, 1914.

- For several weeks discussion has occurred among Government ministers in France regarding bringing in leading figures from opposition parties to sit on the Council of Ministers, in order to give the Government a broader base of support and make real Poincarè's commitment to a Sacred Union.  A reconstruction also gives an opportunity to assign blame for the initial defeats on a retiring minister.  In this case, War Minister Adolphe Messimy is the natural culprit, seen as responsible for the conduct of the war, and criticized for excessively optimistic communiques.  When asked to Messimy, though, Messimy refuses, resulting in Premier Viviani having to tender the resignation of the entire Council of Ministers, to allow for the creation of a new Council without Messimy.  Infuriated at his treatment, Messimy leaves for the front as a Major of Reserves, and is replaced as War Minister by Alexandre Millerand.

- In East Prussia Ludendorff has a momentarily attack of nerves when reports reach him that elements of the Russian 1st Army are moving southwest.  He fears being attacked in the flank by the Russian 1st Army while the operation against 2nd Army is still underway, and wonders if it should be cancelled.  It is in this type of situation that Hindenburg shines.  Nothing can shake his confidence and self-belief - he had agreed to Ludendorff's plan, so it would be seen through, and that was that.  He reassures Ludendorff that the reported movement is merely a few cavalry units, and the latter's equilibrium is restored.

XVII and I Reserve Corps arrive on the battlefield today, to the east of XX Corps.  Before them is the Russian VI Corps, guarding the right flank of the Russian 2nd Army.  When the two German corps attack, the Russians are caught completely by surprise - earlier reconnaissance reports of troop movements to the north had been explained as Russian, not German, units.  The Russian corps commander suffers a nervous breakdown, five thousand casualties were suffered, and by nightfall VI Corps was retreating in utter disarray.  2nd Army's right flank was no longer protected.

On the other side of the battlefield, General François again delays attacking the Russian I Corps before him.  Ludendorff personally visits the headquarters of I Corps, insisting that General François carry out his orders.  As his artillery arrives this evening, François agrees to attack tomorrow morning.

- Ludendorff is informed by a staff officer at OHL that two corps are being transferred from the Western to the Eastern Front.  Ludendorff is astonished - he is well aware of the intricate and detailing planning that has gone into the German invasion of France through Belgium, and can barely comprehend how these plans could be disrupted by a subtraction of forces before France has been decisively defeated.  He informs OHL that the reinforcements are not needed and in any case would not arrive before the decisive battle already underway.  Ludendorff's objections are brushed aside, and the redeployment continues.

- In the Baltic Sea, the German light cruiser Magdeburg runs aground just off the entrance to the Gulf of Finland.  Though the ship was destroyed by the Germans, the Russians manage to recover a copy of the German naval codebook, a vital seizure that will in time allow the British to begin to break German codes regarding naval operations.

- The Russian 5th Army, marching southwest towards Austro-Hungarian Galicia in aid of the Russian 4th Army, begins to collide with elements of the Austro-Hungarian 4th Army, advancing northwards, opening the Battle of Zamość-Komarów.  One corps on the Russian right brushes past an enemy corps, suffers heavy artillery fire, and retreats northwards in disarray, Austro-Hungarians in pursuit.

To the south, however, the campaign is going against Austria-Hungary.  General Rudolf von Brudermann, commanding 3rd Army east of Lemberg, believes there is only a small Russian force before him, and advances.  He collides into the Russian 3rd and 8th Armies on the Zlota Lipa River and, significantly outnumbered, suffers a sharp defeat, some of the Austro-Hungarian divisions suffering up to two-thirds casualties.  Brudermann's army is able to withdraw to the Gnipa Lipa River.

- A congress of the Nationalist Party, the chief opposition party in South Africa, is held in Pretoria.  The Nationalists reflect the position of the more anti-British portion of the Boer population, and some of its leaders have considered rebellion.  However, the congress endorses a position of neutrality, being pro-South African instead of either pro-British or pro-German - its leader J. B. M. Hertzog believes that remaining out of the war will allow South Africa to benefit from whomever wins in Europe, while choosing sides runs the risk of defeat.

- The German foreign office has assembled a mission of fifteen people to send to Afghanistan, to encourage the Emir to invade British India.  The mission includes Wilhelm Wassmuss, a Persian-speaker experienced with the tribes of the region.  The mission arrives at Constantinople disguised as a travelling circus - the Ottomans are not impressed.

August 3rd, 1914

- The Belgian Council of Ministers reconvenes at 230am to approve the reply to the German ultimatum, which states that they 'would sacrifice the honor of the nation and betray its duty to Europe' if it accepted the German demands, and declared that they would resist by force any violation of its frontiers.  At 7am, at the precise moment the ultimatum expires, the reply is delivered to the German ambassador.  That day excited crowds gather in Brussels as news of the act of defiance spreads.

The Kaiser makes one last appeal for Belgian neutrality in a personal telegram to King Albert, a distant cousin.  He argues that only the most extreme of circumstances had required the dispatch of the ultimatum, and that Germany continued to have 'the most friendly intentions' towards Belgium.  King Albert is not impressed - 'What does he take me for?" he exclaims.  Orders are given to detonate key bridges on the Belgian-German frontier.

- The Reichstag deputies of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) meet to decide their attitude towards the war.  Prior to the July Crisis, similar to socialists in other countries, the SPD had opposed war and sought to mobilize the working-class to prevent hostilities from commencing.  However, again as with socialists elsewhere, the speed of the July Crisis has overtaken any desire to avoid war.  Crucially, by August 3rd the issue is not war vs. peace, but whether the SPD will vote in favour of war credits in the Reichstag, essential to the mobilization of the German economy.  The SPD can also see this war in socialist terms - in their eyes, the SPD is the strongest socialist party in Europe, and the 'heart' of socialism is under attack by backward hordes from the East.  A vote among SPD deputies finds seventy-eight in favour of war credits to only fourteen against.  The discipline and solidarity of the SPD ensures that all deputies will endorse the majority view - the SPD vote will be unanimous in the Reichstag.

- The Italian government makes public today its declaration of neutrality in the European war, despite its alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary, on the basis that the alliance is defensive only, and since it has been Austria-Hungary that has initiated hostilities, Italy is not required to intervene.

- This evening the German ambassador to France delivers a declaration of war to Premier Viviani.  It alleges that French airplanes have dropped bombs on German cities, and violated Belgian airspace.  The allegations are nonsense, as Viviani well knows.  Instead, they are meant for domestic consumption in Germany, to justify a declaration of war on a country that had no role to play in the original crisis that started the war.  The Premier denies the charges, and the ambassador departs for the last time.

- Today is a Bank Holiday in Britain, and the crisis brings thousands of people into the streets around Westminster and Trafalgar Square, eager to participate in the historic events.  The German ultimatum has transformed public opinion - whereas a massive anti-war rally had been planned for the capital on Sunday, it never occurs, and by today most in the crowds are calling for war with Germany.  A Cabinet meeting at 11am reflects this shifting opinion.  After much debate and deliberation, the Cabinet agrees that if Germany should invade Belgium and Belgium resist, Britain should declare war on Germany.  There are two further resignations submitted, but there is where the dissension stops.  The middle group of waverers, and especially David Lloyd George, are won over to the position of Grey on intervention.  Overall, the Liberal government has survived the crisis relatively intact - those who did resign were second-rank figures, and the public has swung around to support intervention as well.

At 3pm Grey addresses a full House of Commons on the crisis.  First emphasizing the lengths to which Britain had gone to avoid conflict, he now emphasized that the war was nothing less than an attempt by Germany to secure hegemony over the European continent, and that in line with British policy for centuries, such an attempt must be resisted.  After an hour and fifteen minutes, he sits to general applause.  As Grey later comments to Churchill, the next step will be to issue an ultimatum to Germany to withdraw from Belgium or face war with Britain.  At nightfall, Grey stands at his window in the Foreign Office, looking down at the lamps being lit in St. James' Park.  To a friend beside him, Grey remarks: 'The lamps are going out all over Europe.  We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.'  Thus ended the age of European dominance, dead by its own hand.

August 1st, 1914

- At noon, the German ultimatum to Russia expires without a response.  The response of the German government follows through on the logic of 'mobilization means war', as given in the ultimatum, and instructs its ambassador to call on Foreign Minister Sazonov and deliver a declaration of war.  He does so at 710pm, and after a sharp exchange over honour, the German ambassador breaks down and weeps, his diplomatic efforts at an end.  Sazonov pats the ambassador on the shoulder and helps him on his way.

- Kaiser Wilhelm II signs the order for mobilization of the German army at 5pm, and the decision is made public shortly thereafter.  That afternoon the Kaiser appears at the balcony of the Royal Palace in Berlin, and briefly addresses the assembled crowd:

I thank all of you for the love and loyalty that you have shown me these past days. These were serious days, like seldom before. Should it now come to a battle, then there will be no more political parties. I, too, was attacked by the one or the other party. That was in peace. I forgive you now from the depths of my heart. I no longer recognize any parties or any confessions; today we are all German brothers and only German brothers. If our neighbors want it no other way, if our neighbors do not grant us peace, then I hope to God that our good German sword will see us through to victory in these difficult battles.

It was one of the first expressions of the common sentiment in the first days of the war, that the onset of war had erased all distinctions of class, race, religion, etc.  Each nation, it was believed, was now united by the crucible of war, each singularly devoted to surmounting the great challenge of the age.  How long such unity could last in the face of modern warfare remains to be seen.

Kaiser Wilhelm II speaks from the balcony of the Royal Palace in Berlin, Aug. 1st, 1914.

- At 11am, the German ambassador in Paris arrives at the French Foreign Office, requesting a reply to the German ultimatum of the previous day.  In his anxiety he is two hours early, though he knows the likely outcome of the meeting.  Premier René Viviani replies that 'France will act in accordance with her interests.'  To the ambassador, and indeed to the German government in Berlin, this is a clear statement that France will stand by its Russian ally.

Viviani had left a Cabinet meeting to meet with the German ambassador, and when he returns they decide to approve the formal request from Jospeh Joffre for mobilization of the French army.  At 4pm, mobilization is publicly announced, to begin the following day.

- In London the government remains divided.  In Cabinet Churchill and Grey are the leading advocates for British coming to the aid of the French, but they are faced by a solid phalanx of opponents, while a middle group, among whom was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, David Lloyd George, wavers.  When Churchill requests permission to mobilize the naval reserves, the Cabinet declines.  When Grey asks to implement the secret naval guarantees made to France in peacetime - namely, that the French fleet will concentrate in the Mediterranean while the Royal Navy protects the Channel - four ministers state they would resign rather than approve such a course.  The issue of Belgium comes to the fore - Britain is pledged by a treaty signed in 1839 to defend it.  A German invasion of Belgium might sway the wavers in the Cabinet - it is easier to justify war if it is seen as being on behalf of the small and defenceless, and the navy does not want to see its ports in German hands.  The conversation devolves into a discussion of what constitutes a 'violation' of Belgium neutrality.  Tracing a line on a map, Lloyd George suggests it would only be 'a little violation' if German forces merely cut through the southeast corner of Belgium, as opposed to invading the entirety.  The Cabinet meeting ends with no resignations, and no decisions.  Despite his own preferences, Grey tells the French ambassador that France must make its decision on war or peace without assuming that British aid will be forthcoming.  The French ambassador is despondent - to the editor of the Times, he remarks whether the word 'honour' has been striken from the English dictionary.

That evening Churchill is at the Admiralty, entertaining friends among the Opposition.  As they play cards, a message arrives that Germany has declared war on Russia.  He immediately leaves the Admiralty and crosses Horse Guards Parade to Downing Street, where he finds Prime Minister Asquith with Grey, the Lord Chancellor, and the Secretary of State for India.  Churchill told them he intended to order mobilization of the naval reserves, despite the Cabinet's decision of that afternoon.  Asquith says nothing, which Churchill takes as silent consent, and he departs to issue the orders.

- A day of dramatic developments conclude in Berlin.  Shortly after 5pm, a telegram arrives in Berlin from the German ambassador in London, reporting a conversation with Sir Edward Grey in which the latter pledged to guarantee the neutrality of France in a Russo-German war if Germany refrained from attacking France.  The statement is as a lifeline to a drowning man for the Kaiser.  He is desperate to avoid a two-front war, and the offer of Grey suggests that the war can be confined to the East, where German strength ought to overwhelm Russian numbers.  Moltke, the signed order for mobilization in hand, has left the palace in Potsdam, driving back to General Staff Headquarters in Berlin.  An aide to the Kaiser is instructed to race after Moltke, insisting on his return.  When Moltke arrives back at the palace, the Kaiser informs him of the offer from Grey, and states: 'Now we can go to war against Russia only.  We simply march the whole of our army to the East.'

Moltke could hardly have been more startled if the Kaiser had sprouted wings and flew out of the palace.  The German army in 1914 has exactly one war plan: the Schlieffen Plan.  Designed to ensure victory against the Franco-Russian alliance, it was created by General Alfred von Schlieffen, Chief of Staff of the German Army from 1891 to 1905.  Schlieffen, who died in 1913, had sought a way to avoid a prolonged war of attrition on two fronts, which Germany was likely to lose.  His solution rested on the nature of his enemies.  France was compact, like Germany, and could be expected to mobilize rapidly on the outbreak of war.  Russia was a vast landscape, and with fewer railroads it was expected that it would take them much longer to mobilize.  Schlieffen perceived that this Russian delay created a window of opportunity, in which Germany could attack France before Russia was prepared to invade from the East.  Thus the imperative was to force the surrender of France before Russia could attack.  Schlieffen understand that a frontal assault along the Franco-German border was unlikely to produce a decisive result, given the rough terrain and the numerous French fortifications.  The solution was as simple and elegant as it was profound - go around them.  Instead, of attack France directly, the bulk of the German army would be sent through Belgium, where little resistance was expected, and descend on France from the north.  As most of the French armies would be on the Franco-German frontier, there would be practically nothing stopped the German army from sweeping through France from the north and delivering the knockout blow.  The expectation was that Paris would fall and the decisive battle defeating the French army would occur within forty days of German mobilization.  Indeed, forty days was the time limit, as afterwards the Russians would be sufficiently prepared to invade Germany, and if the bulk of the German army was still in France, there would be little stopping the Russians from sweeping through eastern Germany to the gates of Berlin.  The plan was immensely intricate, with each German corps assigned particular roads for the march through Belgium into France.  A precise timeline required the strictest adherence in order to ensure victory within the forty day limit.  It was an immense gamble, one of the greatest in military history.  Success, and Germany would crush its enemies and ensure its dominance of Europe.  Failure, and Germany faced ruin and defeat.

The planned march of the German armies under the Schlieffen Plan.

These were the stakes when Moltke was confronted with the Kaiser's suggestion to only attack Russia.  Not only was it the German plan for war, it was the only plan for war.  While the General Staff had maintained a plan for a war against Russia only, they had stopped updating it in April 1913 and had discarded it entirely.  Thus for Moltke, the only way Germany can fight a war is to attack France first.  It didn't matter that France had nothing to do with the original dispute - the plan said to attack France, so France would be attacked.  To do anything else is simply impossible - Moltke has visions of the entire strategy for the war collapsing to pieces, units separated from each other, massive confusion on the railways, supplies delivered to the wrong places.  He begs the Kaiser to change his mind.  To change the plan for war at the last minute cannot be done - the schedules are too precise to allow for any deviation.  He argues, 'If Your Majesty insists on leading the whole army to the East it will not be an army ready for battle but a disorganized mob.'

The Kaiser is not used to hearing 'no'.  In reproach he tells Moltke bitterly 'Your uncle would have given me a different answer.'  The criticism shatters Moltke's confidence - he has lived his entire life in his uncle's shadow, and at the supreme moment of his career he is told he does not measure up.  He returns to the General Staff Headquarters and bursts into tears.

The first stage of the Schlieffen Plan is to seize tiny Luxembourg, whose railways would be essential to the invasions.  A detachment of the 16th Division is assigned to cross the border at 7pm.  The Kaiser personally sends the order to halt the move, still hoping to avoid war with France at the last moment.  The result is a farce.  One German column does not receive the order in time, and as per its instructions seizes the town of Ulflingen with its key railway connections at 7pm.  Thirty minutes later, another detachment arrives by automobile, instructing the first column to return to Germany.  Thus the first German invasion of the war ends in an attempt to pretend the whole thing was a mistake and never happened.  The Luxembourgers are not fooled - the Minister of State promptly informs the British and French of the invasion.

Later that evening, another telegram arrives from the German ambassador in London, stating that he had misunderstood the earlier conversation with Grey and that no offer of French neutrality was on the table.  The straw the Kaiser had clutched at disappears from his hand.  At 11pm Moltke is instructed to return to the palace.  The Kaiser greets his Chief of Staff with a military overcoat over his nightshirt, states bitterly, 'Now you can do what you like', and promptly returns to bed.  Moltke returns to General Staff Headquarters, to resume the implementation of the Schlieffen Plan, beginning with an order for the 're-invasion' of Luxembourg at midnight.  Germany thus enters the war with commander of its armed forces, the man tasked to ensure victory by the precise implementation of the only war plan Germany has, having had his self-confidence thoroughly crushed.