August 2nd, 1914

- In many of the larger cities of Europe, enormous crowds form, in part to celebrate the coming of war (in the belief it will be both short and glorious), in part to learn the latest news, and in part simply to be present at the most important moment of their nation's lives.  In St. Petersburg, crowds gather in the Winter Palace Square, waving flags and portraits of the Tsar.  When Nicholas II appears on the palace balcony, the entire crowd kneels and sings the national anthem.  Images of these crowds are among the most famous of the war, seen as a poignant reminder of the hopes and optimism that many embraced in August 1914, in stark contrast to the horrors to come.  Not everyone, though, shares this war enthusiasm.  These crowds are urban and disproportionately middle-class.  In rural Europe, the coming of war is greeted with much more reserve - through conscription peasants were more familiar with army life than their urban middle-class counterparts, and thus they do not share the latter's romantic and idealist view of war.

A jubilant crowd in Munich on August 2nd, among whom is one
particularly infamous figure.

- In France, the Confédération Générale du Travail (CGT), representing the trade union movement in the country, calls on its members to support the government and mobilization.  This is a dramatic about-face for the CGT - it had long embraced revolutionary syndicalism and pacifism, and its stance had long been that if war ever appeared likely a general strike was to be called to ensure the maintenance of peace.  This about-face is a product of several factors.  First, the death of Jaurès has robbed the movement of a key voice at the moment of crisis.  Second, many of the urban working-class prove susceptible to the call of nationalism - forced to choose, most feel greater loyalty to other classes in France than their working-class compatriots in Germany.  Third, the war can be seen in terms favourable to the left - in this light, Imperial Germany is an autocratic and feudal remnant, which the war will sweep away.  Finally, the very speed of the crisis has prevented coordinated action - as late as the 30th, Jaurès himself was suggesting that the crisis would blow over.  Even if the workers had wanted to go on strike to prevent the war, there was hardly time to have organized such a move.

- As part of German mobilization, the first trains, each with fifty-four cars, cross the Hohenzollern Bridge over the Rhine River.  Over the next sixteen days, 2150 such trains are scheduled to use the bridge.

- After the debacle of the 1st, Luxembourg is fully occupied today, the Germans meeting no significant resistance.

- A strange scene at Armstrong's Elswick shipbuilding yard on the Tyne in northern England.  In the yard lies the dreadnought Sultan Osman I, built by Armstrong under contract for the Ottoman Empire. It was one of two dreadnoughts ordered by the Ottomans from British shipyards - the other, Reshadieh, had been completed just weeks earlier, while Sultan Osman I was awaiting the last of its 12-inch guns.  An Ottoman steamer had arrived in England on July 27th, carrying 500 sailors for the voyage to Constantinople.  The two dreadnoughts were to form the backbone of the otherwise-antiquated Ottoman navy.  They had cost the impoverished nation almost £6 million, and had been paid for through extra taxes, donations from villagers, and deductions from the salaries of civil servants.  The two were seen as a point of pride by the Ottoman people, a symbol that their much-battered nation was still a Great Power, despite the recent loss of Libya and most of its Balkan territories.

The ships will never reach Constantinople.  The focus of Churchill and the Admiralty is on the possibility of war with Germany, the latter having the second-largest navy in the world.  In a war at sea, the crucial measurement of strength was the number of dreadnoughts one could deploy.  While the Royal Navy had more than Germany, the margin was not overwhelming, and so Churchill had decided that, in this moment of crisis, Britain needed to confiscate the Ottoman dreadnoughts to add to the British margin of superiority at sea.  Thus the yard sees the odd sight of a detachment of the Sherwood Foresters Regiments, bayonets fixed, boarding Sultan Osman I, in order to prevent the Ottoman sailors from taking possession.  Though Churchill offers compensation, the Ottoman government is both offended and indignant at the British action.

- The seizure of Sultan Osman I and Reshadieh happens the same day that secret negotiations are concluded between the Ottoman Empire and Germany.  Prior to the July crisis, the Ottomans had sought alliances with the Great Powers of Europe, both for defending the tottering empire as well as regaining lost territories in the Balkans.  None had taken the Ottomans up on their offer - the Ottoman Empire had long been described as the 'Sick Man of Europe,' whose decline appeared to be terminal.  Its military was ineffective, its economy backwards, and was reliant on foreign investment for any significant industrial growth.  Their most recent alliance offer, made by Grand Vizier Said Halim and Enver Pasha, had been sent to Germany on July 22nd, one day before the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum was delivered to Serbia.  While previously the Germans had viewed the Ottomans as militarily useless, the prospect of a general European war changed perspectives.  Suddenly, the prospect emerged of using the Ottomans to distract the British and the Russians, drawing some of their forces away from the more vital battlefields in Europe.  Though war with Russia was not the original intent of Enver and the Grand Vizier, they were willing to accept the terms, believing the war would be short, and offered the potential of German aid if other Great Powers attempted to partition the Ottoman Empire.  Thus a secret defensive alliance is signed between Germany and the Ottoman Empire this day.  It does not immediately lead to the Ottomans entering the war, however, for the negotiations have been kept from most of the Ottoman cabinet by Enver, and it would not be easy to convince the others of the necessity of entering the war.  Further, the Ottoman military remained a shambles - it would take months of mobilization before they would be able to threaten their neighbours.  Still, having negotiated the alliance, the Germans are now eager to make the Ottomans co-belligerents.

- At 7pm, the German ambassador to Belgium delivers an ultimatum to the Foreign Office in Brussels.  It had been in the ambassador's safe since its arrival by special courier on July 29th, having been drafted personally by Moltke on the 26th.  The note stated that the Germans had indications the French intended to invade Belgium to attack the German army - obvious misinformation without considering that Moltke must have had a 'premonition' of the 'indications' a week earlier.  It goes on to state that, given the obvious inability of the Belgian army to defend itself, it would be necessary for the German army to move into Belgium to block the French 'advance'.  Emphasis was placed on the benign nature of this intervention, pledging to restore Belgian independence as soon as the war was over.  However, if Belgium resisted, the country would be seen as an enemy, and dealt with militarily.  Finally, a answer was demanded within twelve hours.

The ultimatum was a central component of the Schlieffen Plan, and it was hoped that Belgium would stand aside as the Germans marched through.  Indeed, Moltke could not imagine the tiny army of Belgium offering anything more than token resistance - surely they understood that active resistance meant annihilation.  So much the better if the pesky neutral adopted the proper attitude to Germany.

- There are two Cabinet meetings held in London today to discuss the ongoing crisis.  Grey is finally able to win agreement for a declaration that the Royal Navy will not allow the German fleet to pass into the Channel and bombard French ports unmolested.  Though this is a step towards war, it is still a very small one, and Grey continues to emphasize to the French ambassador that further commitments are not inevitable.  Even this decision comes at the cost of two resignations, and it is apparent that the middle group in Cabinet is still unwilling to go any further in the direction of intervention.  That afternoon a communication from the leaders of the opposition Conservative party emphasize their support for intervention and their willingness to join a coalition government.  This adds a party dimension to the crisis - this is a Liberal government, and ministers do not want to make way for Conservatives who would be even more energetic and aggressive in prosecuting the war.  Thus a desire to keep the Conservatives out is one small addition to the scale in favour of intervention.

That evening, Grey is informed by telegram of the German ultimatum to Belgium.  He immediately meets with Prime Minister Asquith, who agrees to order immediate mobilization of the British army.  An invasion of Belgium might now bring unity to a Liberal government that remains badly divided over the war.  The British government now awaits word of the Belgian response - they can hardly enter the war in defense of Belgian independence if the Belgians themselves are not willing to defend themselves.  Will tiny Belgium stand in the way of the German behemoth?

- At 9pm, the Belgian Council of State convenes, presided over by King Albert.  Discussing the matter for the next three hours, there was no serious consideration given to accepting the German ultimatum.  No faith was placed in the assurance that in victory Germany would evacuate Belgium - it was generally believed that once the Germans were allowed into the country, they would never leave.  Both the King and the ministers also had no illusions regarding the consequences of resistance - the Belgian army was hopelessly overmatched, and at best could hope to slow the German steamroller.  However, as Baron de Bassompierre recorded, 'If we are to be crushed, let us be crushed gloriously.'  The meeting adjourns at midnight to allow the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, and the Justice Minister to draft the reply.

August 1st, 1914

- At noon, the German ultimatum to Russia expires without a response.  The response of the German government follows through on the logic of 'mobilization means war', as given in the ultimatum, and instructs its ambassador to call on Foreign Minister Sazonov and deliver a declaration of war.  He does so at 710pm, and after a sharp exchange over honour, the German ambassador breaks down and weeps, his diplomatic efforts at an end.  Sazonov pats the ambassador on the shoulder and helps him on his way.

- Kaiser Wilhelm II signs the order for mobilization of the German army at 5pm, and the decision is made public shortly thereafter.  That afternoon the Kaiser appears at the balcony of the Royal Palace in Berlin, and briefly addresses the assembled crowd:

I thank all of you for the love and loyalty that you have shown me these past days. These were serious days, like seldom before. Should it now come to a battle, then there will be no more political parties. I, too, was attacked by the one or the other party. That was in peace. I forgive you now from the depths of my heart. I no longer recognize any parties or any confessions; today we are all German brothers and only German brothers. If our neighbors want it no other way, if our neighbors do not grant us peace, then I hope to God that our good German sword will see us through to victory in these difficult battles.

It was one of the first expressions of the common sentiment in the first days of the war, that the onset of war had erased all distinctions of class, race, religion, etc.  Each nation, it was believed, was now united by the crucible of war, each singularly devoted to surmounting the great challenge of the age.  How long such unity could last in the face of modern warfare remains to be seen.

Kaiser Wilhelm II speaks from the balcony of the Royal Palace in Berlin, Aug. 1st, 1914.

- At 11am, the German ambassador in Paris arrives at the French Foreign Office, requesting a reply to the German ultimatum of the previous day.  In his anxiety he is two hours early, though he knows the likely outcome of the meeting.  Premier René Viviani replies that 'France will act in accordance with her interests.'  To the ambassador, and indeed to the German government in Berlin, this is a clear statement that France will stand by its Russian ally.

Viviani had left a Cabinet meeting to meet with the German ambassador, and when he returns they decide to approve the formal request from Jospeh Joffre for mobilization of the French army.  At 4pm, mobilization is publicly announced, to begin the following day.

- In London the government remains divided.  In Cabinet Churchill and Grey are the leading advocates for British coming to the aid of the French, but they are faced by a solid phalanx of opponents, while a middle group, among whom was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, David Lloyd George, wavers.  When Churchill requests permission to mobilize the naval reserves, the Cabinet declines.  When Grey asks to implement the secret naval guarantees made to France in peacetime - namely, that the French fleet will concentrate in the Mediterranean while the Royal Navy protects the Channel - four ministers state they would resign rather than approve such a course.  The issue of Belgium comes to the fore - Britain is pledged by a treaty signed in 1839 to defend it.  A German invasion of Belgium might sway the wavers in the Cabinet - it is easier to justify war if it is seen as being on behalf of the small and defenceless, and the navy does not want to see its ports in German hands.  The conversation devolves into a discussion of what constitutes a 'violation' of Belgium neutrality.  Tracing a line on a map, Lloyd George suggests it would only be 'a little violation' if German forces merely cut through the southeast corner of Belgium, as opposed to invading the entirety.  The Cabinet meeting ends with no resignations, and no decisions.  Despite his own preferences, Grey tells the French ambassador that France must make its decision on war or peace without assuming that British aid will be forthcoming.  The French ambassador is despondent - to the editor of the Times, he remarks whether the word 'honour' has been striken from the English dictionary.

That evening Churchill is at the Admiralty, entertaining friends among the Opposition.  As they play cards, a message arrives that Germany has declared war on Russia.  He immediately leaves the Admiralty and crosses Horse Guards Parade to Downing Street, where he finds Prime Minister Asquith with Grey, the Lord Chancellor, and the Secretary of State for India.  Churchill told them he intended to order mobilization of the naval reserves, despite the Cabinet's decision of that afternoon.  Asquith says nothing, which Churchill takes as silent consent, and he departs to issue the orders.

- A day of dramatic developments conclude in Berlin.  Shortly after 5pm, a telegram arrives in Berlin from the German ambassador in London, reporting a conversation with Sir Edward Grey in which the latter pledged to guarantee the neutrality of France in a Russo-German war if Germany refrained from attacking France.  The statement is as a lifeline to a drowning man for the Kaiser.  He is desperate to avoid a two-front war, and the offer of Grey suggests that the war can be confined to the East, where German strength ought to overwhelm Russian numbers.  Moltke, the signed order for mobilization in hand, has left the palace in Potsdam, driving back to General Staff Headquarters in Berlin.  An aide to the Kaiser is instructed to race after Moltke, insisting on his return.  When Moltke arrives back at the palace, the Kaiser informs him of the offer from Grey, and states: 'Now we can go to war against Russia only.  We simply march the whole of our army to the East.'

Moltke could hardly have been more startled if the Kaiser had sprouted wings and flew out of the palace.  The German army in 1914 has exactly one war plan: the Schlieffen Plan.  Designed to ensure victory against the Franco-Russian alliance, it was created by General Alfred von Schlieffen, Chief of Staff of the German Army from 1891 to 1905.  Schlieffen, who died in 1913, had sought a way to avoid a prolonged war of attrition on two fronts, which Germany was likely to lose.  His solution rested on the nature of his enemies.  France was compact, like Germany, and could be expected to mobilize rapidly on the outbreak of war.  Russia was a vast landscape, and with fewer railroads it was expected that it would take them much longer to mobilize.  Schlieffen perceived that this Russian delay created a window of opportunity, in which Germany could attack France before Russia was prepared to invade from the East.  Thus the imperative was to force the surrender of France before Russia could attack.  Schlieffen understand that a frontal assault along the Franco-German border was unlikely to produce a decisive result, given the rough terrain and the numerous French fortifications.  The solution was as simple and elegant as it was profound - go around them.  Instead, of attack France directly, the bulk of the German army would be sent through Belgium, where little resistance was expected, and descend on France from the north.  As most of the French armies would be on the Franco-German frontier, there would be practically nothing stopped the German army from sweeping through France from the north and delivering the knockout blow.  The expectation was that Paris would fall and the decisive battle defeating the French army would occur within forty days of German mobilization.  Indeed, forty days was the time limit, as afterwards the Russians would be sufficiently prepared to invade Germany, and if the bulk of the German army was still in France, there would be little stopping the Russians from sweeping through eastern Germany to the gates of Berlin.  The plan was immensely intricate, with each German corps assigned particular roads for the march through Belgium into France.  A precise timeline required the strictest adherence in order to ensure victory within the forty day limit.  It was an immense gamble, one of the greatest in military history.  Success, and Germany would crush its enemies and ensure its dominance of Europe.  Failure, and Germany faced ruin and defeat.

The planned march of the German armies under the Schlieffen Plan.

These were the stakes when Moltke was confronted with the Kaiser's suggestion to only attack Russia.  Not only was it the German plan for war, it was the only plan for war.  While the General Staff had maintained a plan for a war against Russia only, they had stopped updating it in April 1913 and had discarded it entirely.  Thus for Moltke, the only way Germany can fight a war is to attack France first.  It didn't matter that France had nothing to do with the original dispute - the plan said to attack France, so France would be attacked.  To do anything else is simply impossible - Moltke has visions of the entire strategy for the war collapsing to pieces, units separated from each other, massive confusion on the railways, supplies delivered to the wrong places.  He begs the Kaiser to change his mind.  To change the plan for war at the last minute cannot be done - the schedules are too precise to allow for any deviation.  He argues, 'If Your Majesty insists on leading the whole army to the East it will not be an army ready for battle but a disorganized mob.'

The Kaiser is not used to hearing 'no'.  In reproach he tells Moltke bitterly 'Your uncle would have given me a different answer.'  The criticism shatters Moltke's confidence - he has lived his entire life in his uncle's shadow, and at the supreme moment of his career he is told he does not measure up.  He returns to the General Staff Headquarters and bursts into tears.

The first stage of the Schlieffen Plan is to seize tiny Luxembourg, whose railways would be essential to the invasions.  A detachment of the 16th Division is assigned to cross the border at 7pm.  The Kaiser personally sends the order to halt the move, still hoping to avoid war with France at the last moment.  The result is a farce.  One German column does not receive the order in time, and as per its instructions seizes the town of Ulflingen with its key railway connections at 7pm.  Thirty minutes later, another detachment arrives by automobile, instructing the first column to return to Germany.  Thus the first German invasion of the war ends in an attempt to pretend the whole thing was a mistake and never happened.  The Luxembourgers are not fooled - the Minister of State promptly informs the British and French of the invasion.

Later that evening, another telegram arrives from the German ambassador in London, stating that he had misunderstood the earlier conversation with Grey and that no offer of French neutrality was on the table.  The straw the Kaiser had clutched at disappears from his hand.  At 11pm Moltke is instructed to return to the palace.  The Kaiser greets his Chief of Staff with a military overcoat over his nightshirt, states bitterly, 'Now you can do what you like', and promptly returns to bed.  Moltke returns to General Staff Headquarters, to resume the implementation of the Schlieffen Plan, beginning with an order for the 're-invasion' of Luxembourg at midnight.  Germany thus enters the war with commander of its armed forces, the man tasked to ensure victory by the precise implementation of the only war plan Germany has, having had his self-confidence thoroughly crushed.