October 11th, 1914

- When General Pau reported to Joffre King Albert's thoughts on the Belgians retiring past Calais, the French Commander-in-Chief was appalled.  He desperately wants the Belgians to take up position along the Entente front line, in order to cover part of the gap that remains north of Arras.  Joffre's concerns, however, are for naught - the Belgian king has had a change of heart.  He feels it is essential both for the Belgian war effort and the morale of the Belgian army for them to hold on to at least a small portion of Belgian territory, to emphasize that they are still an active participant, not only helping their allies but defending their homeland.  Albert thus orders the Belgian army today to retire to the Yser River between Dixmude to the south and Nieuport and the Channel coast to the north.

- Aware now that the bulk of the Belgian army has escaped Antwerp, General Beseler's III Reserve Corps is ordered westward, advancing to Ostend via Ghent and Bruges.  By this afternoon, advance German units are approaching Ghent, prompting the Entente forces defending the town to fall back.  The British are the last to retire from Ghent at 10pm this evening.  The British 3rd Cavalry Division, meanwhile, is in the vicinity of Thourout clearing the route for the Entente forces.

The Entente retreat to the Yser, October 10th to 15th, 1914.

- Today the German 179th Infantry Division of XIX Corps approaches the city of Lille, one of the largest cities in France and a key industrial centre.  It is garrisoned by a territorial brigade, and it had been hoped by Joffre that the ongoing effort to outflank the Germans at and north of Arras would link up with the city.  However, the Germans have arrived in strength first.  XIX Corps has been marching for a week, departing from the vicinity of Rheims with Lille as its objective.  At 9pm, a note is sent to the garrison commander at Lille demanding the city's surrender.  When no response is received, an artillery bombardment begins at 930pm.

- The British II Corps has reached Béthune, its first objective, and have deployed north-to-south.  Tomorrow they are to relieve the French cavalry divisions screening them and advance northeast to a line running roughly between Estaires and la Bassée.  The two British cavalry divisions of the Cavalry Corps are both operating to the north of II Corps, and, having swept aside advance patrols of the German IV Cavalry Corps, entered Hazebrouck.  Further, since yesterday III Corps has been detraining at St. Omer, though delays on the railway result in part of 4th Division not having arrived today.  Nevertheless, 19th Brigade is ordered forward to Hazebrouck thirteen miles to the east to cover the arrival of the rest of III Corps.

- Along the Vistula River, though still opposed to a general advance, permits individual corps to secure bridgeheads across the Vistula River.  The efforts are generally a debacle - though two bridgeheads are gained, German and Austro-Hungarian artillery fire inflicts substantial casualties and the survivors are unable to exploit their crossings.  5th Army is particular inept - they had no bridging equipment immediately at hand, so soldiers attempted to cross in rafts and barges in the face of machine-gun fire.  When bridging equipment finally did arrive, the bridge they erected floated away.  Finally, they were unable to counter enemy artillery fire, as the army staff had forgotten where they had left their field mortars.  Overall, the crossings themselves posed no great threat to the German 9th Army and Austro-Hungarian 1st Army.

- In response to Martiz's declaration of rebellion, Defense Minister Smuts today declares martial law.  This forces the critical choice on the Boers of South Africa - do they rise with Maritz, or under the compulsion of martial law aid in his suppression.

- Though the Admiralty has yet to respond to his message of October 8th, Rear-Admiral Craddock sends another dispatch today, recommending the creation of a second squadron to cover the South Atlantic.  This would allow Craddock to take the full strength of his squadron in pursuit of the German East Asiatic Squadron, without fearing that the Germans could slip past him and wreck havoc in the Atlantic.

October 10th, 1914

- The orders for the British II Corps is to advance to cover Béthune, placing it on the left flank of the French 10th Army.  By today, II Corps is in the area Diéval-Pernes between St. Pol and Béthune, with 2nd Cavalry Division to its north and 1st Cavalry Division, having just arrived today, to its south.  To the east, two French cavalry corps have prevented the German I and II Cavalry Corps from advancing beyond a line Béthune-Armentières.

The advance of British units in Flanders to October 15th, 1914

- In Germany the four reserve corps destined to form the core of the new 4th Army begin to entrain for the front.

- This morning German forces begin to occupy Antwerp.  They are surprised by how few prisoners they take - all that remained of the Belgian defenders were the Military Governor, his staff officer, and a few stragglers in the surviving forts.  To the end of the siege the Germans had expected to capture the entire Belgian army at Antwerp, and so the realization that it has escaped mars the German victory.

In Britain the fall of Antwerp leads to sharp criticism being directed at Winston Churchill by the press.  Not only is he, by virtue of his 'trip' to Antwerp, the most prominent minister associated with the defeat at Antwerp, and in particular the loss of several thousand men from the Naval Brigades, but his judgement is questioned regarding his presence at Antwerp at all, seen as an amateur interfering with army operations in the field and that he had cast aside his responsibilities as First Lord of the Admiralty to do so.  There is an undertone of distrust regarding Churchill, whether he can sufficiently restrain his famous enthusiasm for whatever catches his fancy at the moment.

- A conference is held today at Ostend between King Albert, General Pau, the representative of Joffre, and General Rawlinson.  The conclusion is that the present position around Ghent cannot be held for long, considering that the nearest significant Entente force is the BEF beginning to arrive west of Lille, and that retreat is necessary.  Given the battered state of the Belgian army, King Albert wonders if they should not withdraw behind the front lines to southwest of Calais, to allow for rest and recovery.

By nightfall most of the Belgian army has pulled back towards Ostend while the British and French remain at Ghent to cover the withdrawal.  The Germans to the east, however, do not immediately move on Ghent, instead turning eastward in the belief that there is still a substantial Belgian force at Antwerp that needs to be contained.

- In Poland the initial plan regarding the Russian offensive was that the armies committed to the operation - the 2nd, 5th, 4th, and 9th, arrayed north to south from Warsaw to Sandomir - would be prepared to advance today.  Mud and supply shortages, however, have delayed their redeployment, and some units have yet to arrive along the east bank of the Vistula River.  General Ivanov, in command of the offensive, is concerned by the German and Austro-Hungarian advance, and does not wish to engage the enemy until his armies are at full strength.  Grand Duke Nicholas, however, is eager to attack, wanting the armies to cross the Vistula immediately.  However, he has no direct line of communication with Ivanov today, so cannot influence the latter's operations.

- King Carol I of Romania dies today, and is succeeded by his nephew Ferdinand I, who is more favourably inclined to the Entente, and who also is willing to give greater leeway to Prime Minister Ion Bratianu, whose primary foreign policy aim is the acquisition of Austro-Hungarian Transylvania.

- In Austria-Hungary a decree is published today authorizing the Austrian Board of Trade to direct the flow of raw materials and organize industrial production in support of the war effort.  While the decree is a step forward in mobilizing the economy for war, it also reflects a key hindrance to the Austro-Hungarian war effort - the decree applies only to the Austrian portion of the empire, as the Hungarian portion insists on controlling its own wartime economy.  The lack of co-ordination between the two halves of Austria-Hungary is demonstrative of the extent to which the divisions of peacetime persist into the war itself.

October 6th, 1914

- Realizing that the enemy line at Arras will hold, Rupprecht turns his attention northwards, hoping to accomplish the desired envelopment through Flanders.  The French have held Arras, though at great cost - the Alpine Division, for instance, has suffered 75% casualties over the past week fighting to hold the city.

- Early this morning Belgian units attack the German bridgehead over the Nethe River.  After initial progress, the Germans counterattack, and the Belgians are pushed back.  At the same time, Fort Broechem is put out of action and is evacuated by its Belgian defenders.  With the Nethe River line breached, the Belgians and the British Marine Brigade withdraw to a second defensive position half-way between the Nethe and the inner ring of forts around Antwerp.  The new line to the south and southeast is only five to six miles outside of the city, which means that once the Germans bring their heavy artillery across the Nethe, they will be able to bombard the city itself.

Meanwhile, the two British Naval Brigades take up defensive positions between several of the inner forts protecting Antwerp.  The trenches in these positions were shallow and rudimentary - their proximity to the Schelde River prevents digging any deeper due to the risk of flooding.

To the west of Antwerp, two German brigades attempt to force the crossing of the Schelde River.  Termonde itself has been captured, but the Germans have failed to secure bridgeheads have been beaten back by the Belgian 4th Infantry Division, which has been reinforced by 6th Infantry Division sent from Antwerp itself.  Despite the successes, it is clear that German pressure against the Schelde line will only increase.

At noon today General Rawlinson arrives at Antwerp, and with Churchill surveys the new defensive position taken between the Nethe and the inner forts.  They conclude that the position cannot be held - the trenches were only partially prepared, and its flanks were open - and that it would be better to simply pull back further and defend at the line of the inner forts.  They bring this conclusion to a meeting of the Belgian Council of Defense, held at 4pm and presided over by King Albert.  The Council concurs with the British advice, and further Albert concludes both that the three-day period agreed to on the 3rd has passed without sufficient reinforcement, and that the defensive line along the inner forts does not require the full Belgian army to hold.  As such, it is agreed that most of the Belgian field army will withdraw across the Schelde, where they can co-ordinate with any potential relieving force, while the inner forts and the lines between them will be held by the Belgian garrison and fortress troops, the Belgian 2nd Infantry Division, and the three British brigades.  Both Rawlinson and Churchill depart Antwerp this evening, the former to meet with his 7th Infantry and 3rd Cavalry Divisions landing on the Belgian coast, and the latter en route to London.

Belgian civilians leaving Antwerp, October 6th, 1914.

- Japanese and British warships attempt the first bombardment of Tsingtao today, but achieve little due to the range from ship to shore being too great.

- In German Kamerun, though the British have seized the principal port of Duala, the proximity of German forces nearby leaves their hold on the town insecure.  As a result, British forces push out from Duala towards Edea to the southwest, Jabassi to the northeast, and Dschang to the north.  Today, Senegalese soldiers seize the bridge at Japoma along the railway to Edea, overcoming German resistance.

October 2nd, 1914

- General Castlenau of 2nd Army informs Joffre today that, under growing German pressure north of Arras, XXI Corps will not be able to detrain as close to Lille as had been planned, implying that the city cannot be held.  Joffre's response is that retreat is not acceptable and Lille must not be yielded.

- At Antwerp the forts of Waelhelm and Boschbeck fall to the Germans this afternoon.  With a substantial gap now having opened in the outer line of fortifications, the Belgian army to the south of the city withdraws to the north bank of the Nethe River, running between the outer and inner forts.  A meeting of Belgian ministers and military leaders decides that given the German advance, the King and government should depart Antwerp tomorrow.  While King Albert agrees, he states he will only leave after the population of the city have been warned.

At 10pm a telegram from the British Minister in Antwerp arrives in London, reporting the decision of the Belgian government to leave the city tomorrow, and also erroneously reporting that the Belgian army was also to abandon Antwerp.  With Prime Minister Asquith in Cardiff at a recruiting rally, it is Sir Edward Grey who receives the telegram, and rushes to Lord Kitchener's house in Carlton Gardens to discuss the note.  They also recall Churchill, who had just boarded a train at London for Dover and Dunkirk, and he races from Victoria Station to Carlton Gardens.  There the three agree that Antwerp must hold out as long as possible - if it falls immediately, the German forces besieging it could sweep through northern France before the Entente line is extended to the Channel.  Thus, even a week's delay in its surrender could be of vital importance.  Churchill recommends the immediate dispatch of the Marine Brigade, two thousand strong, to reinforce the defenses of the city.  He also volunteers to go to Antwerp himself, to encourage the Belgians to hold out as long as possible.  Grey and Kitchener agree, and at midnight Churchill departs London en route to Antwerp.

- In neutral Romania, King Carol I is sympathetic to Germany and Austria-Hungary, and indeed had signed a secret treaty to support the latter if war broke out.  His ministers, however, insisted on remaining out of the war in August, citing the plight of the Romanian population of Austro-Hungarian Transylvania, a territory which many in government covet.  During the first weeks of the war, Romania acquiesced to the German desire to ship supplies by rail to the Ottoman Empire via Austria-Hungary and Romania, though the shipments were limited to eight freight cars per day.  Now, with the King ailing, the government is able to enforce a stricter interpretation of neutrality today by halting all German shipments through its territory.  With the naval blockade in the Mediterranean, the Ottomans are now completely isolated from Germany and Austria-Hungary, and while options such as Zeppelin flights will be considered, ultimately the only way to allow large-scale shipments to reach the Ottomans is through the conquest of Serbia.

- The German East Asiatic Squadron departs Nuku Hiva today, sailing southeast towards Easter Island.  As they leave the tropics behind them, the days are cooler and the seas rougher.

August 18th, 1914

- King Albert orders the Belgian army to retire from its positions along the Gette river, which commences this evening.  Albert's objective now is to preserve the Belgian army, knowing that its destruction would end Belgian participation in the war.  The army is to retreat to Antwerp in the northwest.  The port city is surrounded by a series of forts, and will hopefully provide both a respite from German attacks and a base from which counterattacks against the German flank can be undertaken.

- The French 1st Army seizes Sarrebourg today, after it had been evacuated by the Germans.  Upon hearing of the success, Joffre issues revised orders for 2nd Army - given the apparent weakness of the German left, 2nd Army is to focus more to the north, in order to fix the German defenders there and prevent them from reinforcing the Ardennes, target of the imminent offensive of 3rd and 4th Armies.  The practical effect of the order is to pull 1st and 2nd Armies apart, weakening the point where the two armies meet.  2nd Army, meanwhile, has been receiving accurate intelligence of the German forces at Morhange, thanks to aerial reconnaissance.  General Castlenau thus understands that 2nd Army is now approaching the main German defensive position in the area.

- Even as the French 1st and 2nd Armies advance, OHL continues to mull over Prince Rupprecht's request for his 6th Army to launch a counterattack.  As no decision had been communicated by this afternoon, Rupprecht's chief of staff telephones OHL, demanding a decision.  Moltke, weighed down by the enormity of events, cannot make a choice.  One of Moltke's deputies takes the call, and refuses to give a yes or no answer, stating that Rupprecht should take the choice he prefers.  When told that the choice is to attack, the deputy merely states that it will be Rupprecht's responsibility.  Thus a critical decision to launch a major counterattack is taken without OHL having made any real decision on the matter - not exactly decisive leadership from headquarters.  6th Army begins preparation for a counterattack, to be launched on the 20th.

- A reply is delivered today to the Ottoman government from the Entente to Enver Pasha's earlier secret inquiry regarding what the Entente might offer the Ottomans to dissuade them from taking a pro-German line.  The Entente response is that they would offer a guarantee of Ottoman territorial integrity in exchange for Ottoman neutrality in the war.  There is no enthusiasm in the Entente for the restoration of recently-lost territory in Europe to the Ottomans - Russia does not want to see a revival of Ottoman power in the Balkans, preferring to dominate Balkan affairs themselves, while Britain and France do not wish to offend neutral Greece.  For the Ottomans, a guarantee of the status quo is unacceptable, given that the status quo is a weakening Ottoman Empire increasingly vulnerable to foreign aggression.  In this context, the German offer is more enticing.

August 17th, 1914

- Today the advance of the 1st and 2nd German Armies through Belgium is in full motion - 1st Army is attacking the lines of the main Belgian army along the Gette River, fifteen miles east of Brussels, while elements of 2nd Army are crossing the Meuse River at Huy in the direction of Namur and 3rd Army is moving west towards Dinant and Givet.  King Albert and Premier de Brouqueville in Brussels discuss the plight of the Belgian army.  Both believe that the main German advance is coming through Belgium, and to date no significant military assistance has been forthcoming from their allies, Joffre still insisting that the German effort in Belgium was a 'screen' for operations elsewhere.  The Belgian army alone can hardly withstand the Germans; remaining at their current positions would only ensure their ultimate destruction.  This evening the Belgian king takes the decision to abandon the capital.

Operations in Northern France and Belgium, Aug. 17th to Aug. 26th, 1914.

- The commander of II Corps of the British Expeditionary Force, Lieutenant General James Grierson, drops dead this morning on a train near Amiens of heart failure.  Field Marshal French is shocked by the sudden death of his good friend, compounded by Kitchener's refusal to agree to French's preferred replacement.  Instead, Kitchener sends out General Sir Horace Smith-Dorrien, whom French dislikes.  Both corps of the BEF are now under opinionated generals (I Corps being led by General Sir Douglas Haig) disinclined to defer to the wishes of their commanding officer.

- Field Marshal Sir John French meets with General Charles Lanrezac of the French 5th Army at the latter's headquarters today.  As the BEF is to slid into the Entente line to the left of 5th Army, a good working relationship between the two commanders is essential.  Instead, the meeting reflects the suspicion both hold for the other; in particular, Lanrezac places no faith in the BEF.  He feels that the main German force is about to descend on his position, and 5th Army is all that stands between France and annihilation.  Instead of receiving support from Joffre, however, the only aid he is to receive is the tiny British force.  He feels French does not understand the gravity of the situation, an impression confirmed when the British commander states, as he did to the French President, that his force will not be ready for action until the 24th.  When French asks if the Germans are crossing the Meuse, Lanrezac's peevish response is that the Germans have come to the Meuse to fish.  Neither general is willing to place their cavalry under the direction of the other.  In a report later submitted by Lanrezac to Joffre, the former reported that the British cavalry cannot be counted upon for anything, and that British unfamiliarity with French roads could cause widespread confusion in the case of a retreat.  It is the first time that Lanrezac has mentioned the possibility of retreat, and reflects his anxiety that his army will be insufficient to stop the German steamroller.  Joffre, for his part, is unimpressed.

- The French advance into Lorraine continues.  In the face of heavy casualties, XX Corps, commanded by General Ferdinand Foch and part of 2nd Army, seizes a portion of the heights near Morhange.  The success of XX Corps, though, disrupts the plans of General Édouard de Curières Castelnau, 2nd Army commander.  Castelnau had wanted XX Corps, on the left flank of his army, to act as a pivot, around which the other corps to the south would turn.  With XX Corps now the furthest into German territory, the left flank of Castelnau's two centre corps is now uncovered.

- The embarkation of the British Expeditionary Force is completed in the Channel ports today.

- As the Russian 1st Army has been the first to cross into East Prussia, General Prittwitz, commander of the German 8th Army, has decided that it will need to be defeated first, before redeployment southwest to meet the impending invasion of the Russian 2nd Army.  Prittwitz leaves one corps in the south to screen the Russian 2nd Army, and moves his other three and a half corps against the Russian 1st Army.  The plan is to fight the Russians along the Angerapp River, well behind the border, on the belief that the longer the Russians have to march, the more exhausted and out of supply they will become.

Prittwitz's plan, however, does not account for the insubordination of one of his corps commanders, General Hermann von François, whose I Corps was drawn from East Prussia.  François and his soldiers did not want to yield an inch of their 'home' territory to the Russians, and I Corps had consequently deployed farther east than the rest of 8th Army, and had begin skirmishing with the Russian 1st Army as soon as it crossed the border on the 15th.  Today I Corps engaged the Russians at Stallupönnen, twenty miles to the east of Gumbinnen and the Angerapp, despite a direct order from Prittwitz to François.  I Corps' attack disrupted the advance of the Russian 1st Army and forced the Russian 27th Division to retire in disarray.  Having achieved a tactical success, François shadows the Russians as they lumber westward, continuing to skirmish.

Operations in East Prussia, Aug. 17th to 23rd, 1914.

- Britain and France establish the Commission Internationale de Revitaillement to co-ordinate Entente purchase of munitions and other supplies from neutral countries, and thereby keep down prices.

August 3rd, 1914

- The Belgian Council of Ministers reconvenes at 230am to approve the reply to the German ultimatum, which states that they 'would sacrifice the honor of the nation and betray its duty to Europe' if it accepted the German demands, and declared that they would resist by force any violation of its frontiers.  At 7am, at the precise moment the ultimatum expires, the reply is delivered to the German ambassador.  That day excited crowds gather in Brussels as news of the act of defiance spreads.

The Kaiser makes one last appeal for Belgian neutrality in a personal telegram to King Albert, a distant cousin.  He argues that only the most extreme of circumstances had required the dispatch of the ultimatum, and that Germany continued to have 'the most friendly intentions' towards Belgium.  King Albert is not impressed - 'What does he take me for?" he exclaims.  Orders are given to detonate key bridges on the Belgian-German frontier.

- The Reichstag deputies of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) meet to decide their attitude towards the war.  Prior to the July Crisis, similar to socialists in other countries, the SPD had opposed war and sought to mobilize the working-class to prevent hostilities from commencing.  However, again as with socialists elsewhere, the speed of the July Crisis has overtaken any desire to avoid war.  Crucially, by August 3rd the issue is not war vs. peace, but whether the SPD will vote in favour of war credits in the Reichstag, essential to the mobilization of the German economy.  The SPD can also see this war in socialist terms - in their eyes, the SPD is the strongest socialist party in Europe, and the 'heart' of socialism is under attack by backward hordes from the East.  A vote among SPD deputies finds seventy-eight in favour of war credits to only fourteen against.  The discipline and solidarity of the SPD ensures that all deputies will endorse the majority view - the SPD vote will be unanimous in the Reichstag.

- The Italian government makes public today its declaration of neutrality in the European war, despite its alliance with Germany and Austria-Hungary, on the basis that the alliance is defensive only, and since it has been Austria-Hungary that has initiated hostilities, Italy is not required to intervene.

- This evening the German ambassador to France delivers a declaration of war to Premier Viviani.  It alleges that French airplanes have dropped bombs on German cities, and violated Belgian airspace.  The allegations are nonsense, as Viviani well knows.  Instead, they are meant for domestic consumption in Germany, to justify a declaration of war on a country that had no role to play in the original crisis that started the war.  The Premier denies the charges, and the ambassador departs for the last time.

- Today is a Bank Holiday in Britain, and the crisis brings thousands of people into the streets around Westminster and Trafalgar Square, eager to participate in the historic events.  The German ultimatum has transformed public opinion - whereas a massive anti-war rally had been planned for the capital on Sunday, it never occurs, and by today most in the crowds are calling for war with Germany.  A Cabinet meeting at 11am reflects this shifting opinion.  After much debate and deliberation, the Cabinet agrees that if Germany should invade Belgium and Belgium resist, Britain should declare war on Germany.  There are two further resignations submitted, but there is where the dissension stops.  The middle group of waverers, and especially David Lloyd George, are won over to the position of Grey on intervention.  Overall, the Liberal government has survived the crisis relatively intact - those who did resign were second-rank figures, and the public has swung around to support intervention as well.

At 3pm Grey addresses a full House of Commons on the crisis.  First emphasizing the lengths to which Britain had gone to avoid conflict, he now emphasized that the war was nothing less than an attempt by Germany to secure hegemony over the European continent, and that in line with British policy for centuries, such an attempt must be resisted.  After an hour and fifteen minutes, he sits to general applause.  As Grey later comments to Churchill, the next step will be to issue an ultimatum to Germany to withdraw from Belgium or face war with Britain.  At nightfall, Grey stands at his window in the Foreign Office, looking down at the lamps being lit in St. James' Park.  To a friend beside him, Grey remarks: 'The lamps are going out all over Europe.  We shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.'  Thus ended the age of European dominance, dead by its own hand.

August 2nd, 1914

- In many of the larger cities of Europe, enormous crowds form, in part to celebrate the coming of war (in the belief it will be both short and glorious), in part to learn the latest news, and in part simply to be present at the most important moment of their nation's lives.  In St. Petersburg, crowds gather in the Winter Palace Square, waving flags and portraits of the Tsar.  When Nicholas II appears on the palace balcony, the entire crowd kneels and sings the national anthem.  Images of these crowds are among the most famous of the war, seen as a poignant reminder of the hopes and optimism that many embraced in August 1914, in stark contrast to the horrors to come.  Not everyone, though, shares this war enthusiasm.  These crowds are urban and disproportionately middle-class.  In rural Europe, the coming of war is greeted with much more reserve - through conscription peasants were more familiar with army life than their urban middle-class counterparts, and thus they do not share the latter's romantic and idealist view of war.

A jubilant crowd in Munich on August 2nd, among whom is one
particularly infamous figure.

- In France, the Confédération Générale du Travail (CGT), representing the trade union movement in the country, calls on its members to support the government and mobilization.  This is a dramatic about-face for the CGT - it had long embraced revolutionary syndicalism and pacifism, and its stance had long been that if war ever appeared likely a general strike was to be called to ensure the maintenance of peace.  This about-face is a product of several factors.  First, the death of Jaurès has robbed the movement of a key voice at the moment of crisis.  Second, many of the urban working-class prove susceptible to the call of nationalism - forced to choose, most feel greater loyalty to other classes in France than their working-class compatriots in Germany.  Third, the war can be seen in terms favourable to the left - in this light, Imperial Germany is an autocratic and feudal remnant, which the war will sweep away.  Finally, the very speed of the crisis has prevented coordinated action - as late as the 30th, Jaurès himself was suggesting that the crisis would blow over.  Even if the workers had wanted to go on strike to prevent the war, there was hardly time to have organized such a move.

- As part of German mobilization, the first trains, each with fifty-four cars, cross the Hohenzollern Bridge over the Rhine River.  Over the next sixteen days, 2150 such trains are scheduled to use the bridge.

- After the debacle of the 1st, Luxembourg is fully occupied today, the Germans meeting no significant resistance.

- A strange scene at Armstrong's Elswick shipbuilding yard on the Tyne in northern England.  In the yard lies the dreadnought Sultan Osman I, built by Armstrong under contract for the Ottoman Empire. It was one of two dreadnoughts ordered by the Ottomans from British shipyards - the other, Reshadieh, had been completed just weeks earlier, while Sultan Osman I was awaiting the last of its 12-inch guns.  An Ottoman steamer had arrived in England on July 27th, carrying 500 sailors for the voyage to Constantinople.  The two dreadnoughts were to form the backbone of the otherwise-antiquated Ottoman navy.  They had cost the impoverished nation almost £6 million, and had been paid for through extra taxes, donations from villagers, and deductions from the salaries of civil servants.  The two were seen as a point of pride by the Ottoman people, a symbol that their much-battered nation was still a Great Power, despite the recent loss of Libya and most of its Balkan territories.

The ships will never reach Constantinople.  The focus of Churchill and the Admiralty is on the possibility of war with Germany, the latter having the second-largest navy in the world.  In a war at sea, the crucial measurement of strength was the number of dreadnoughts one could deploy.  While the Royal Navy had more than Germany, the margin was not overwhelming, and so Churchill had decided that, in this moment of crisis, Britain needed to confiscate the Ottoman dreadnoughts to add to the British margin of superiority at sea.  Thus the yard sees the odd sight of a detachment of the Sherwood Foresters Regiments, bayonets fixed, boarding Sultan Osman I, in order to prevent the Ottoman sailors from taking possession.  Though Churchill offers compensation, the Ottoman government is both offended and indignant at the British action.

- The seizure of Sultan Osman I and Reshadieh happens the same day that secret negotiations are concluded between the Ottoman Empire and Germany.  Prior to the July crisis, the Ottomans had sought alliances with the Great Powers of Europe, both for defending the tottering empire as well as regaining lost territories in the Balkans.  None had taken the Ottomans up on their offer - the Ottoman Empire had long been described as the 'Sick Man of Europe,' whose decline appeared to be terminal.  Its military was ineffective, its economy backwards, and was reliant on foreign investment for any significant industrial growth.  Their most recent alliance offer, made by Grand Vizier Said Halim and Enver Pasha, had been sent to Germany on July 22nd, one day before the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum was delivered to Serbia.  While previously the Germans had viewed the Ottomans as militarily useless, the prospect of a general European war changed perspectives.  Suddenly, the prospect emerged of using the Ottomans to distract the British and the Russians, drawing some of their forces away from the more vital battlefields in Europe.  Though war with Russia was not the original intent of Enver and the Grand Vizier, they were willing to accept the terms, believing the war would be short, and offered the potential of German aid if other Great Powers attempted to partition the Ottoman Empire.  Thus a secret defensive alliance is signed between Germany and the Ottoman Empire this day.  It does not immediately lead to the Ottomans entering the war, however, for the negotiations have been kept from most of the Ottoman cabinet by Enver, and it would not be easy to convince the others of the necessity of entering the war.  Further, the Ottoman military remained a shambles - it would take months of mobilization before they would be able to threaten their neighbours.  Still, having negotiated the alliance, the Germans are now eager to make the Ottomans co-belligerents.

- At 7pm, the German ambassador to Belgium delivers an ultimatum to the Foreign Office in Brussels.  It had been in the ambassador's safe since its arrival by special courier on July 29th, having been drafted personally by Moltke on the 26th.  The note stated that the Germans had indications the French intended to invade Belgium to attack the German army - obvious misinformation without considering that Moltke must have had a 'premonition' of the 'indications' a week earlier.  It goes on to state that, given the obvious inability of the Belgian army to defend itself, it would be necessary for the German army to move into Belgium to block the French 'advance'.  Emphasis was placed on the benign nature of this intervention, pledging to restore Belgian independence as soon as the war was over.  However, if Belgium resisted, the country would be seen as an enemy, and dealt with militarily.  Finally, a answer was demanded within twelve hours.

The ultimatum was a central component of the Schlieffen Plan, and it was hoped that Belgium would stand aside as the Germans marched through.  Indeed, Moltke could not imagine the tiny army of Belgium offering anything more than token resistance - surely they understood that active resistance meant annihilation.  So much the better if the pesky neutral adopted the proper attitude to Germany.

- There are two Cabinet meetings held in London today to discuss the ongoing crisis.  Grey is finally able to win agreement for a declaration that the Royal Navy will not allow the German fleet to pass into the Channel and bombard French ports unmolested.  Though this is a step towards war, it is still a very small one, and Grey continues to emphasize to the French ambassador that further commitments are not inevitable.  Even this decision comes at the cost of two resignations, and it is apparent that the middle group in Cabinet is still unwilling to go any further in the direction of intervention.  That afternoon a communication from the leaders of the opposition Conservative party emphasize their support for intervention and their willingness to join a coalition government.  This adds a party dimension to the crisis - this is a Liberal government, and ministers do not want to make way for Conservatives who would be even more energetic and aggressive in prosecuting the war.  Thus a desire to keep the Conservatives out is one small addition to the scale in favour of intervention.

That evening, Grey is informed by telegram of the German ultimatum to Belgium.  He immediately meets with Prime Minister Asquith, who agrees to order immediate mobilization of the British army.  An invasion of Belgium might now bring unity to a Liberal government that remains badly divided over the war.  The British government now awaits word of the Belgian response - they can hardly enter the war in defense of Belgian independence if the Belgians themselves are not willing to defend themselves.  Will tiny Belgium stand in the way of the German behemoth?

- At 9pm, the Belgian Council of State convenes, presided over by King Albert.  Discussing the matter for the next three hours, there was no serious consideration given to accepting the German ultimatum.  No faith was placed in the assurance that in victory Germany would evacuate Belgium - it was generally believed that once the Germans were allowed into the country, they would never leave.  Both the King and the ministers also had no illusions regarding the consequences of resistance - the Belgian army was hopelessly overmatched, and at best could hope to slow the German steamroller.  However, as Baron de Bassompierre recorded, 'If we are to be crushed, let us be crushed gloriously.'  The meeting adjourns at midnight to allow the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, and the Justice Minister to draft the reply.