August 2nd, 1914

- In many of the larger cities of Europe, enormous crowds form, in part to celebrate the coming of war (in the belief it will be both short and glorious), in part to learn the latest news, and in part simply to be present at the most important moment of their nation's lives.  In St. Petersburg, crowds gather in the Winter Palace Square, waving flags and portraits of the Tsar.  When Nicholas II appears on the palace balcony, the entire crowd kneels and sings the national anthem.  Images of these crowds are among the most famous of the war, seen as a poignant reminder of the hopes and optimism that many embraced in August 1914, in stark contrast to the horrors to come.  Not everyone, though, shares this war enthusiasm.  These crowds are urban and disproportionately middle-class.  In rural Europe, the coming of war is greeted with much more reserve - through conscription peasants were more familiar with army life than their urban middle-class counterparts, and thus they do not share the latter's romantic and idealist view of war.

A jubilant crowd in Munich on August 2nd, among whom is one
particularly infamous figure.

- In France, the Confédération Générale du Travail (CGT), representing the trade union movement in the country, calls on its members to support the government and mobilization.  This is a dramatic about-face for the CGT - it had long embraced revolutionary syndicalism and pacifism, and its stance had long been that if war ever appeared likely a general strike was to be called to ensure the maintenance of peace.  This about-face is a product of several factors.  First, the death of Jaurès has robbed the movement of a key voice at the moment of crisis.  Second, many of the urban working-class prove susceptible to the call of nationalism - forced to choose, most feel greater loyalty to other classes in France than their working-class compatriots in Germany.  Third, the war can be seen in terms favourable to the left - in this light, Imperial Germany is an autocratic and feudal remnant, which the war will sweep away.  Finally, the very speed of the crisis has prevented coordinated action - as late as the 30th, Jaurès himself was suggesting that the crisis would blow over.  Even if the workers had wanted to go on strike to prevent the war, there was hardly time to have organized such a move.

- As part of German mobilization, the first trains, each with fifty-four cars, cross the Hohenzollern Bridge over the Rhine River.  Over the next sixteen days, 2150 such trains are scheduled to use the bridge.

- After the debacle of the 1st, Luxembourg is fully occupied today, the Germans meeting no significant resistance.

- A strange scene at Armstrong's Elswick shipbuilding yard on the Tyne in northern England.  In the yard lies the dreadnought Sultan Osman I, built by Armstrong under contract for the Ottoman Empire. It was one of two dreadnoughts ordered by the Ottomans from British shipyards - the other, Reshadieh, had been completed just weeks earlier, while Sultan Osman I was awaiting the last of its 12-inch guns.  An Ottoman steamer had arrived in England on July 27th, carrying 500 sailors for the voyage to Constantinople.  The two dreadnoughts were to form the backbone of the otherwise-antiquated Ottoman navy.  They had cost the impoverished nation almost £6 million, and had been paid for through extra taxes, donations from villagers, and deductions from the salaries of civil servants.  The two were seen as a point of pride by the Ottoman people, a symbol that their much-battered nation was still a Great Power, despite the recent loss of Libya and most of its Balkan territories.

The ships will never reach Constantinople.  The focus of Churchill and the Admiralty is on the possibility of war with Germany, the latter having the second-largest navy in the world.  In a war at sea, the crucial measurement of strength was the number of dreadnoughts one could deploy.  While the Royal Navy had more than Germany, the margin was not overwhelming, and so Churchill had decided that, in this moment of crisis, Britain needed to confiscate the Ottoman dreadnoughts to add to the British margin of superiority at sea.  Thus the yard sees the odd sight of a detachment of the Sherwood Foresters Regiments, bayonets fixed, boarding Sultan Osman I, in order to prevent the Ottoman sailors from taking possession.  Though Churchill offers compensation, the Ottoman government is both offended and indignant at the British action.

- The seizure of Sultan Osman I and Reshadieh happens the same day that secret negotiations are concluded between the Ottoman Empire and Germany.  Prior to the July crisis, the Ottomans had sought alliances with the Great Powers of Europe, both for defending the tottering empire as well as regaining lost territories in the Balkans.  None had taken the Ottomans up on their offer - the Ottoman Empire had long been described as the 'Sick Man of Europe,' whose decline appeared to be terminal.  Its military was ineffective, its economy backwards, and was reliant on foreign investment for any significant industrial growth.  Their most recent alliance offer, made by Grand Vizier Said Halim and Enver Pasha, had been sent to Germany on July 22nd, one day before the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum was delivered to Serbia.  While previously the Germans had viewed the Ottomans as militarily useless, the prospect of a general European war changed perspectives.  Suddenly, the prospect emerged of using the Ottomans to distract the British and the Russians, drawing some of their forces away from the more vital battlefields in Europe.  Though war with Russia was not the original intent of Enver and the Grand Vizier, they were willing to accept the terms, believing the war would be short, and offered the potential of German aid if other Great Powers attempted to partition the Ottoman Empire.  Thus a secret defensive alliance is signed between Germany and the Ottoman Empire this day.  It does not immediately lead to the Ottomans entering the war, however, for the negotiations have been kept from most of the Ottoman cabinet by Enver, and it would not be easy to convince the others of the necessity of entering the war.  Further, the Ottoman military remained a shambles - it would take months of mobilization before they would be able to threaten their neighbours.  Still, having negotiated the alliance, the Germans are now eager to make the Ottomans co-belligerents.

- At 7pm, the German ambassador to Belgium delivers an ultimatum to the Foreign Office in Brussels.  It had been in the ambassador's safe since its arrival by special courier on July 29th, having been drafted personally by Moltke on the 26th.  The note stated that the Germans had indications the French intended to invade Belgium to attack the German army - obvious misinformation without considering that Moltke must have had a 'premonition' of the 'indications' a week earlier.  It goes on to state that, given the obvious inability of the Belgian army to defend itself, it would be necessary for the German army to move into Belgium to block the French 'advance'.  Emphasis was placed on the benign nature of this intervention, pledging to restore Belgian independence as soon as the war was over.  However, if Belgium resisted, the country would be seen as an enemy, and dealt with militarily.  Finally, a answer was demanded within twelve hours.

The ultimatum was a central component of the Schlieffen Plan, and it was hoped that Belgium would stand aside as the Germans marched through.  Indeed, Moltke could not imagine the tiny army of Belgium offering anything more than token resistance - surely they understood that active resistance meant annihilation.  So much the better if the pesky neutral adopted the proper attitude to Germany.

- There are two Cabinet meetings held in London today to discuss the ongoing crisis.  Grey is finally able to win agreement for a declaration that the Royal Navy will not allow the German fleet to pass into the Channel and bombard French ports unmolested.  Though this is a step towards war, it is still a very small one, and Grey continues to emphasize to the French ambassador that further commitments are not inevitable.  Even this decision comes at the cost of two resignations, and it is apparent that the middle group in Cabinet is still unwilling to go any further in the direction of intervention.  That afternoon a communication from the leaders of the opposition Conservative party emphasize their support for intervention and their willingness to join a coalition government.  This adds a party dimension to the crisis - this is a Liberal government, and ministers do not want to make way for Conservatives who would be even more energetic and aggressive in prosecuting the war.  Thus a desire to keep the Conservatives out is one small addition to the scale in favour of intervention.

That evening, Grey is informed by telegram of the German ultimatum to Belgium.  He immediately meets with Prime Minister Asquith, who agrees to order immediate mobilization of the British army.  An invasion of Belgium might now bring unity to a Liberal government that remains badly divided over the war.  The British government now awaits word of the Belgian response - they can hardly enter the war in defense of Belgian independence if the Belgians themselves are not willing to defend themselves.  Will tiny Belgium stand in the way of the German behemoth?

- At 9pm, the Belgian Council of State convenes, presided over by King Albert.  Discussing the matter for the next three hours, there was no serious consideration given to accepting the German ultimatum.  No faith was placed in the assurance that in victory Germany would evacuate Belgium - it was generally believed that once the Germans were allowed into the country, they would never leave.  Both the King and the ministers also had no illusions regarding the consequences of resistance - the Belgian army was hopelessly overmatched, and at best could hope to slow the German steamroller.  However, as Baron de Bassompierre recorded, 'If we are to be crushed, let us be crushed gloriously.'  The meeting adjourns at midnight to allow the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, and the Justice Minister to draft the reply.

July 30th, 1914

- In Russia, the Tsar's decision of the previous evening to cancel general mobilization has appalled Foreign Minister Sazonov, War Minister General Vladimir Sukhomlinov, and Chief of Staff General Janushkevich, who all believe that any delay in mobilization threatens disaster on the battlefield.  Tsar Nicholas II is at his summer residence in the Baltic, where Sazonov presses the case for general mobilization in the afternoon.  The Tsar is nervous and irritable, caught between a hope that his cousin the Kaiser could be trusted in his stated desire for peace, and the arguments of his ministers.  Finally, shortly after 4pm he submits to the arguments of Sazonov, and agrees once more to order general mobilization of the army.  Sazonov telephones Janushkevich with the order, and concludes by saying 'Now you can smash your telephone' - Janushkevich had earlier declared that upon receiving such an order a second time, he would smash his telephone to prevent another change of heart by the Tsar from having any effect.  The posters announcing mobilization go up in cities across Russia, with the first day of mobilization set for the 31st.

- At 255am, Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg sends an urgent telegram to the German ambassador in Vienna, requesting the Austro-Hungarians to accept mediation of their dispute with Serbia after limiting their offensive to the capture of Belgrade.  The Chancellor has now joined the Kaiser in desperately seeking to avoid the general European war that their prior actions during the crisis made likely.  The ability of both, and in particular the Kaiser, to affect the course of events is rapidly slipping away.  Once mobilization was on the table, the generals came to the fore.  In Germany, this meant Field Marshal Helmuth von Moltke, Chief of Staff of the army.  His family had already made its mark on German history - his uncle, Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, had led the Prussian army that crushed first Austria and then France in the German Wars of Unification.  Now the nephew faces the culminating crisis of his professional career.  From his perspective, even the partial Russian mobilization threatened disaster - every day the German army now waited to mobilize meant that it would fight at a greater and greater disadvantage if/when war came.  He makes his case to Bethmann-Hollweg at 1pm, though the Chancellor still holds out hope of a peaceful resolution to the crisis.  Later that afternoon, von Moltke learns of the dispositions of the Austro-Hungarian army.  To date, they  have only mobilized against Serbia, not Russia, and Conrad has also decided to deploy the Austro-Hungarian 2nd Army to the Serbian front, instead of against Russia.  This would leave only twenty-five divisions in Galicia on the Russian frontier, far fewer than von Moltke believed necessary - the German war plan relies on Austria-Hungary containing the Russians in the first month of the war while the Germans marched west.  That evening he telegrams Conrad directly, begging him to mobilize against Russia, and promising that Germany will mobilize as well.  This is a blatant overreach of his authority, and in direct conflict with the efforts of the Kaiser and the Chancellor to preserve the peace.  However, the crisis has reached the point where communications between generals are of greater importance than communications between civilians, even if they are monarchs, as is the case with the ongoing 'Willy-Nicky' telegrams.  Ultimately, both monarchs, despite the outward appearance of wielding absolute power, are finding themselves incapable of resisting the blandishments of their generals, presented in the language of crisis and national survival.

- The French government is steadfast in its support of its Russian ally, but is also eager for Britain to enter the war as well.  To this end, the French army is ordered to withdraw ten kilometers from the border with Germany - it is felt essential to show that France is not the aggressor should war break out.

July 29th, 1914

- The first shots of the Great War are fired this morning when Austro-Hungarian artillery fire on the Serbian capital of Belgrade (which sits right on the border between the two countries) and Serbian fortifications. Militarily, the bombardment makes no impact - indeed, the Austro-Hungarian army will not be sufficiently prepared to actually invade Serbia until August 12th.  Such ineffectiveness portents the overall quality of the Austro-Hungarian war effort.

- For much of July, both the bulk of the British political establishment and the British public had been blissfully unaware of the growing threat of war in the Balkans, their attention fixated on the long-running Home Rule crisis in Ireland, which threatened that summer to provoke a civil war.  By the last week of July, as awareness of the crisis dawned, most saw no reason for British participation in the conflict.  While the Entente Cordialle had clearly placed Britain in the camp of France and Russia, it was not a formal, binding alliance - Britain had no legal obligation to defend either country.

Within the government, however, key figures moved to prepare Britain for war.  Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey had on July 26th sought to convene an international conference to settle the Balkan dispute peacefully.  The proposal came to nothing - the Austro-Hungarian government was determined on a military solution to the Serbian question, and had the full support of their German allies.  Grey now came to realize that a general European war was probable, and personally felt that Britain could not allow France in particular to be crushed by German power.  On the afternoon of the 29th, Grey informs the German ambassador that 'it would not be practicable' for Britain to remain neutral if Germany attacked France and Russia.  The Foreign Secretary, however, is walking a very fine line - he has no authorization from the Cabinet to issue such a declaration, nor can he promise the French ambassador Britain's entry into the war.  He hopes to be able to convince the rest of the Cabinet of the necessity of intervention, but to this point it seems an uphill battle.

Grey is not the only British minister acting independently.  This morning the dreadnoughts of the Royal Navy leave Portland on Britain's Channel coast and sail to their wartime base at Scapa Flow in the Orkneys.  They do so on the orders of Churchill, so that the fleet would be prepared if war came suddenly.  Not only does Churchill not make any public statement about the move, but also does not inform his fellow Cabinet ministers, knowing they would have objected.  Only Prime Minister Herbert Henry Asquith, who also believes Britain should support France, knows of the order.

- Meanwhile, Grey's statement to the German ambassador has contributed to second thoughts amongst German officials.  On the 28th, Kaiser Wilhelm II had undertaken an about-face and now stated that Austria-Hungary should accept mediation as opposed to provoking war.  Illustrative of the respect his officials accorded him, German Chancellor Theodor von Bethmann-Hollweg passes this suggestion on to Vienna without endorsement, and Berchtold ignores it.  The Chancellor believed the crisis could be managed to allow for an Austro-Hungarian victory while preventing a general war.  These illusions are shattered by the report from the ambassador in London on his conversation with Grey.  Bethmann-Hollweg now faces the prospect of war with not only France and Russia, but also Britain, and recoils.  The German War Minister, Erich von Falkenhayn, appalled by such indecision, argues that steps should be taken to prepare for mobilization, but Bethmann-Hollweg manages to hold him off for now.

- This morning Foreign Minister Sazonov, influenced by the leadership of the Russian army, convinces Tsar Nicholas II to order the general mobilization of the Russian army.  The fear is now widespread that if Russia does not immediately mobilize, it risks being caught unprepared if Germany mobilizes first and attacks.  General mobilization is set to begin the following day, but at the last moment the Tsar changes his minds and cancels the order, reverting to partial mobilization only, much to the outrage of his ministers.  The u-turn results from a series of telegrams exchanged directly between the German Kaiser and the Russian Tsar, each begging the other to refrain from taking the final plunge into war.  The 'Willy-Nicky Telegrams,' as they become known, are a throwback to an earlier age when international relations were a matter for monarchs only, who acted on the basis of personal relationships with each other.  The viability of conducting diplomacy in this manner is now to be tested.

July 28th, 1914

- The First World War can be said to begin at 11am with a simple telegram sent by Count Leopold von Berchtold, the Foreign Minister of Austria-Hungary, to the Serbian government announcing that a state of war now existed between the two countries.  Since June 28th, Berchtold and Field Marshall Conrad von Hötzendorff, Chief of Staff of the Austro-Hungarian army, had sought to utilize the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo as a pretext to attack Serbia, long seen as a troublesome enemy in Vienna.  An ultimatum to Serbia on July 23rd had been designed to be rejected, and when the Serbian reply on July 25th agreed to all demands but one, the Austro-Hungarian ambassador in Belgrade had broken diplomatic relations and left the Serbian capital without even reading the particulars of what the Serbs had objected to.  The expectation was that a short, decisive victory would cripple the Serbs and create an image of Austro-Hungarian strength, in contrast to the generally-prevailing opinion abroad that Austria-Hungary was in decline.  In this attack they had been encouraged by their German allies - Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany told the Austro-Hungarian ambassador on July 5th that the time had come to deal with Serbia and offered his full support.

- Even as the declaration of war was sent, however, any hope of containing the war to the Balkans had already evaporated.  Russia viewed itself as a protector of Serbia, and at a Council of Ministers meeting on July 24th, it was decided that the four military districts facing Austria-Hungary - Kiev, Odessa, Moscow, and Kazan - were to take steps to prepare for mobilization, a move which Tsar Nicholas II signed off on the following day.  When news arrived of the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war arrived in St. Petersburg, Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov announced that the Russian army in the four districts would mobilize, the last step before war.  Publicly the intent of only mobilizing against Austria-Hungary may have been intended to intimidate Austria-Hungary to back away from its attack on Serbia, but in practice General N. N. Janushkevich understood by July 28th that mobilization greatly increased the chances of a general European war, and that mobilization of the entire Russian army was now necessary.  Mobilization was perhaps the crucial step towards war, as once one country mobilized, its enemies would feel overwhelming pressure to mobilize their own army, so as to avoid being caught unprepared.  The Russian government had been encouraged to take these steps by the French Ambassador Maurice de Paléologue, who declared to Sazonov that France fully stood behind their Russian ally (despite having received instructions from Paris to encourage the Russians to find a peaceful solution).

- By this date, most Europeans had become aware that a general war was now likely, provoking a range of reactions.  Not everyone was yet swept up by enthusiasm for the coming conflict - in Berlin 100 000 attended a rally opposing war.  In Vienna, however, news of the declaration of war on Serbia was greeted by large cheering crowds, scenes that would be repeated in European capitals over the next week.  Others looked forward to what appeared to be the great event of the age - to his wife, Winston Churchill, First Lord of the Admiralty (the cabinet minister in charge of the Royal Navy), wrote this day that 'Everything tends towards catastrophe, & collapse.  I am interested, geared-up & happy.'